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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also see the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Squad Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that change approaching, coming around the corner, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.