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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he stated, in comments that exceed previous warnings by his superior, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was blunt language from the middle-aged Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of armed forces minister.

A Swift Political Ascent

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and political instincts to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”